Paper authored by Jeroen P.T. van der Gun, Adam J. Pel and Bart van Arem in 2015.
Conference contribution number 11 presented at the 3rd International Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Management (ICEM 2015) in Tainan, Taiwan on 1–3 June 2015.
Many possible emergency conditions, including evacuations, negatively affect the urban transportation system by substantially increasing the travel demand and/or reducing the supplied capacity. We develop a new, general and efficient methodology suitable for simulating multimodal transportation systems subject to a wide range of emergency situations, based on the integration of an activity-based choice model with both pre-trip and en-route choices, and a macroscopic or mesoscopic dynamic network loading model. The model structure first estimates the daily equilibrium and then simulates the emergency without iterations. An evacuation case study for Delft shows the feasibility of the methodology and yields practical insights.
Keywords: urban emergencies, evacuation modelling, choice modelling, activity-based modelling, dynamic network loading, multimodal networks, multimodal evacuation.
Citation: Van der Gun, J.P.T., Pel, A.J., Van Arem, B. (2015). A General Activity-based Methodology for Simulating Multimodal Transportation Networks during Emergencies. Paper no. 11 presented at the 3rd International Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Management (ICEM 2015). Tainan, Taiwan, 1–3 June.